Cleolinda Jones (cleolinda) wrote in dailydigestnews,
Cleolinda Jones
cleolinda
dailydigestnews

All Oscars, all the time!

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Copied from my Oscar.com ballot:

Best Picture:  BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN 
Give me half a point for: A Crash upset. It's kind of a 55-45% split at this point, predictionwise.

Actor in a Leading Role:  Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE 
We're all pretty much expecting this one--I wouldn't know whether to go with Phoenix or Ledger as a backup. Ledger, if Brokeback Mountain comes through...?

Actor in a Supporting Role:  George Clooney - SYRIANA 
Give me half a point for: I changed from Giamatti at the last minute on the strength of the Clooney zeitgeist. I swear, if Clooney loses, all y'all critic-prognosticators OWE ME.

Actress in a Leading Role:  Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE 
Give me half a point for: We're all pretty much expecting this one, too, although I guess you could put Felicity Huffman down for the upset. It just seems that the Academy has really enjoyed anointing a fairly popular, youngish superstarlet in this category several years running (Julia Roberts, Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron, Halle Berry; Renee Zellweger and Catherine Zeta-Jones over in Supporting). Of the two women, who fits that pattern better?

Actress in a Supporting Role:  Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER 
Give me half a point for: I'll be shocked if she doesn't win, at this point, but I guess Michelle Williams is the next most likely guess. I just keep seeing Williams' nomination as more of a "honored just to be here" thing.

Animated Feature Film:  WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT 
Again: will be surprised if this doesn't happen. Even the Howl people were like, "Yeah, we bet on Gromit in the pool."

Art Direction:  MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA 
More like most art direction, but that's how you spot 'em. Give me half a point for: Maybe Pride and Prejudice, which had a lovely, unusually lived-in look, as an alternate? They're all good nominees, but Geisha is the one that had the hell art-directed out of it.

Cinematography:  MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
Give me half a point for: Brokeback Mountain. Geisha, however, won the cinematographers' guild award.
 
Costume Design:  MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA 
I feel weird picking Geisha for so many things, given what a flop it was otherwise, but... Give me half a point for: Again, take everything I said about art direction and sub in "costumes." Same alternate pick, too.

Directing:  BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN 
Even the Crash upsetters are sticking to Ang Lee for this one. If there is a Crash upset, you may see the reason why directing and picture are separate categories, and why there's sometimes a split: sometimes the "best" movie does not have the most accomplished direction.

Documentary Feature:  MARCH OF THE PENGUINS 
I suspect this one'll win just because it's the one everyone saw. Enron and Murderball do have shots, however.

Documentary Short Subject:  GOD SLEEPS IN RWANDA 
Dude, I have no idea. I just went by the Oscar Watch chart and Entertainment Weekly. That, and--having not seen any of them--I go, "Rwanda, eh? Sounds harrowing. Try that one." I wouldn't be surprised to find out I'm not the only one who uses that thought process, shallow as it is.

Film Editing:  CRASH 
I would have gone with The Constant Gardener as a personal preference, but the chart is pretty solid across the board on this prediction.

Foreign Language Film:  TSOTSI 
Give me half a point for: I was sticking pretty close to Sophie Scholl until five minutes ago, but this one is another across-the-board prediction. They can't all be crazy, right?

Makeup:  THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE 
Give me half a point for: Star Wars, but I will truly enjoy seeing the final SW movie getting punked in its one category by the Narnian upstarts, because I'm a bitch like that.

Music (Score):  MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA 
If Brokeback Mountain wins this one, I will stab someone because that one set of twangs they always play drives me crazy. I don't think it's going to happen, though. (You know, it occurs to me now that Memoirs of a Geisha must have been a gorgeous movie searching, in vain, for a decent script.)

Music (Song):  "In the Deep" - CRASH 
Give me half a point for: "Travelin' Thru." I don't think the Academy is quite ready for something called "It's Hard Out Here For a Pimp," but God bless 'em if they are; no one'll be happier than me. I just don't think it's going to happen, though.

Short Film - Animated:  ONE MAN BAND 
Oh, Pixar, you say?

Short Film - Live Action:  AUSREISSER (THE RUNAWAY) 
Again, just reading the chart on this one.

Sound: WALK THE LINE 
Well, it's sound... and this one's about music, so...

Sound Editing:  KING KONG 
Give me half a point for: Maybe Memoirs of a Geisha? Hell, I don't know.

Visual Effects:  KING KONG 
Your alternatives are Narnia and War of the Worlds. Girl, please.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay):  BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN 
Give me half a point for: I guess Capote? The Constant Gardener? Really, this one seems pretty sewn up, particularly since it's not competing against...

Writing (Original Screenplay):  CRASH
...which doesn't seem to have had the most subtle script in the world, but if it might sneak a Best Picture upset, for cryin' out loud, you have to think of it as a strong contender.


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Tags: awards, brokeback mountain, independent spirit awards, oscars, predictions
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  • (no subject)

    Liman's Jumper. Rather than being about suicide, which was my first thought, the story actually sounds fairly interesting. World Trade Center…

  • (no subject)

    Kate Beckinsale is Probably Wonder Woman. OR IS SHE? Simpsons movie writers and director revealed. Faris Coy About My Super Ex-Girlfriend. A…

  • (no subject)

    Zaillian Rewriting American Gangster. David Slade on 30 Days of Night. Woody Harrelson, American Gigolo for the 21st Century. The Promise…